It's already to late to surrender. I'll probably hang on there until Mr. Margin calls. Very much with the idea that I would want to take bigger risk trading counter-trend, I've probably blew it that turning back don't seem like an option anymore.
So, for now, it looks like it's a double or nothing scenario. Unrealized losses are being absorbed. And the fight continues for whatsoever reason. The emotions were so high before, yet it has ceased to be a factor anymore. I just wanted all these to end quickly. Foolish, eh?
Friday, August 27, 2010
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Monday, August 16, 2010
Will I Be Able To Make A Comeback?
The market has not been kind to me lately. Though I had been in a worse situation (a lot worse), what's happening now has been demotivating not to mention all the time wasted spent on waiting (I've waited a lot longer too).
Losing is part of trading and perhaps my time may be up soon?! Who knows what's going to happen in the future? So, as part of my 'let-go-and-move-forward' plan, I have moved a-third of my money for Hang Seng trading (mini). Not to say I'll make money for sure from it, but at least it's worth a shot than waiting here in our dear'ol FKLI and FCPO. Genting soaring is definitely not within my expectation and I bow to that on the part of my fallibility.
The wait here in BMD (Bursa Malaysia Derivatives) is here to stay for now. God knows how long. It's still bearable (hopefully bear-able, LOL). One thing for sure, with the current plan that I'm executing now, money is more well utilized as compared to the time I chose to play safe and under-utilized.
Will I be able to make a comeback? Or my money just got burnt for nothing?!
Losing is part of trading and perhaps my time may be up soon?! Who knows what's going to happen in the future? So, as part of my 'let-go-and-move-forward' plan, I have moved a-third of my money for Hang Seng trading (mini). Not to say I'll make money for sure from it, but at least it's worth a shot than waiting here in our dear'ol FKLI and FCPO. Genting soaring is definitely not within my expectation and I bow to that on the part of my fallibility.
The wait here in BMD (Bursa Malaysia Derivatives) is here to stay for now. God knows how long. It's still bearable (hopefully bear-able, LOL). One thing for sure, with the current plan that I'm executing now, money is more well utilized as compared to the time I chose to play safe and under-utilized.
Will I be able to make a comeback? Or my money just got burnt for nothing?!
Friday, August 13, 2010
It's A Good Time To Switch A Little
Look at the 5-year chart below for HKD/MYR. Maybe it's time to phase out a little to Hang Seng!?
Euro-Region Jitters To Return
The tensions with the euro zone could be about to return. This could force the market back to focusing on solvency concerns, Ireland and Portugal will be back in the spotlight next week.
On Thursday, the Irish central bank warned that costs for issuing bonds are too high, with the governor saying premiums that investors demand to hold Irish debt are "ridiculous."
German yields are too low given pace of growth, Bunds are expensive. With Ireland I wonder whether the market is willing to keep believing things remain OK when we are facing major austerity measures.
~~ Steven Major, the head of fixed income research at HSBC
On Thursday, the Irish central bank warned that costs for issuing bonds are too high, with the governor saying premiums that investors demand to hold Irish debt are "ridiculous."
German yields are too low given pace of growth, Bunds are expensive. With Ireland I wonder whether the market is willing to keep believing things remain OK when we are facing major austerity measures.
~~ Steven Major, the head of fixed income research at HSBC
Russian Roulette With Genting
It was a russian roulette affair with Genting today. Genting +6%, GenM +1.5%.
~~ The sheriff was shot, but not the deputy. Deputy can still be promoted though...LOL
~~ The sheriff was shot, but not the deputy. Deputy can still be promoted though...LOL
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Bond Pointing To Bear Market For Stocks
In the latest battle over who does a better job of forecasting market movements, bonds are nearing a strong signal that a bear market for stocks is right around the bend.
Since hitting its most recent high yield of 4.01 percent on April 5, the 10-year Treasury bond has slid nearly 1.20 percentage points, a metric that signaled in 1990, 2000 and 2007 that a steep drop in stocks was only two months away, according to research from Gluskin Sheff strategist David Rosenberg.
With the 10-year yield at 2.82 percent in early Tuesday trading and the bond market still red-hot despite continued predictions of its demise, the big bear indicator is looming large.
"Declines of this magnitude very often presage the onset of bear markets and recessions," Rosenberg says. "Typically, equities and then economists are late to the game...What is key to note is that the bond market is the tail that wags the stock market's dog—it leads."
Whether the bond market again is foretelling a bear market—a 20 percent drop in stocks from the most recent high—is part of a long-running debate over who does a better job forecasting—stock or bond investors.
Conventional wisdom is that bond investors tend to be more conservative and thus less influenced by fear and greed. That's cited as the reason by some that the bond market does a better job of getting the economy right.
"With all due respect to the stocks guys, the bond guys, when it comes to the economy, tend to sniff things out a little earlier and eventually get things right," says Mike Larson, analyst at Weiss Research. "Bond yield levels have given you key insight into what's going on in the economy. The verdict in my mind is pretty unmistakable."
~~ CNBC
Since hitting its most recent high yield of 4.01 percent on April 5, the 10-year Treasury bond has slid nearly 1.20 percentage points, a metric that signaled in 1990, 2000 and 2007 that a steep drop in stocks was only two months away, according to research from Gluskin Sheff strategist David Rosenberg.
With the 10-year yield at 2.82 percent in early Tuesday trading and the bond market still red-hot despite continued predictions of its demise, the big bear indicator is looming large.
"Declines of this magnitude very often presage the onset of bear markets and recessions," Rosenberg says. "Typically, equities and then economists are late to the game...What is key to note is that the bond market is the tail that wags the stock market's dog—it leads."
Whether the bond market again is foretelling a bear market—a 20 percent drop in stocks from the most recent high—is part of a long-running debate over who does a better job forecasting—stock or bond investors.
Conventional wisdom is that bond investors tend to be more conservative and thus less influenced by fear and greed. That's cited as the reason by some that the bond market does a better job of getting the economy right.
"With all due respect to the stocks guys, the bond guys, when it comes to the economy, tend to sniff things out a little earlier and eventually get things right," says Mike Larson, analyst at Weiss Research. "Bond yield levels have given you key insight into what's going on in the economy. The verdict in my mind is pretty unmistakable."
~~ CNBC
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
What Jobs Data Tells Us
What the jobless claims numbers should tell us is that employers lack the confidence to expand their production because they’re uncertain how much momentum is out there. Businesses are interested in maintaining margins because they are not sure about the strength of future top-line growth.
~~ Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist at RidgeWorth Capital Management
~~ Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist at RidgeWorth Capital Management
Friday, August 6, 2010
Some Careless Whisper With Seether's Rendition
This rendition will change anyone's perception of the old version by George Michael
Thursday, August 5, 2010
US Exporting Deflation
The dollar is getting weaker- that's really the U.S. exporting deflation to the rest of the world. This comes at a time when the yen has hit an eight-month high against the dollar. As the dollar falls against currencies like the yen and euro, it would make it even harder for Japan and the Euro Zone to increase output.
~~ John Makin, chief economist at Caxton Associates
~~ John Makin, chief economist at Caxton Associates
Fully Stocked Up
Many economists are forecasting a further slowdown in the second half of the year, perhaps to an annual rate as low as 1.5 percent. That is largely because businesses have refilled the stockroom shelves that were whittled down during the financial crisis, and there will not be much need for additional orders.
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Keynesian Beauty Contest
Keynes described the action of rational agents in a market using an analogy based on a fictional newspaper contest, in which entrants are asked to choose a set of six faces from photographs of women that are the "most beautiful". Those who picked the most popular face are then eligible for a prize.
A naïve strategy would be to choose the six faces that, in the opinion of the entrant, are the most beautiful. A more sophisticated contest entrant, wishing to maximize the chances of winning a prize, would think about what the majority perception of beauty is, and then make a selection based on some inference from their knowledge of public perceptions. This can be carried one step further to take into account the fact that other entrants would each have their own opinion of what public perceptions are. Thus the strategy can be extended to the next order, and the next, and so on, at each level attempting to predict the eventual outcome of the process based on the reasoning of other rational agents.
“It is not a case of choosing those [faces] that, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those that average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be. And there are some, I believe, who practice the fourth, fifth and higher degrees.” (Keynes, General Theory of Employment Interest and Money, 1936).
Keynes believed that similar behavior was at work within the stock market. This would have people pricing shares not based on what they think their fundamental value is, but rather on what they think everyone else thinks their value is, or what everybody else would predict the average assessment of value is.
~~ Wikipedia
A naïve strategy would be to choose the six faces that, in the opinion of the entrant, are the most beautiful. A more sophisticated contest entrant, wishing to maximize the chances of winning a prize, would think about what the majority perception of beauty is, and then make a selection based on some inference from their knowledge of public perceptions. This can be carried one step further to take into account the fact that other entrants would each have their own opinion of what public perceptions are. Thus the strategy can be extended to the next order, and the next, and so on, at each level attempting to predict the eventual outcome of the process based on the reasoning of other rational agents.
“It is not a case of choosing those [faces] that, to the best of one’s judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those that average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be. And there are some, I believe, who practice the fourth, fifth and higher degrees.” (Keynes, General Theory of Employment Interest and Money, 1936).
Keynes believed that similar behavior was at work within the stock market. This would have people pricing shares not based on what they think their fundamental value is, but rather on what they think everyone else thinks their value is, or what everybody else would predict the average assessment of value is.
~~ Wikipedia
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Click-A-Doo