All The Best For 2010

One year has passed, another is coming. Wish everybody all the best as we journey in 2010.

Curbs Talk In India

India January NCDEX soy futures down on trading curb talk, low soymeal export demand; trade body Solvent Extractors Association of India urges country's commodity regulator to curb excessive soy futures speculation to control prices.

One 'System' Fits All?

There's no one method that suits all conditions...even F1 drivers change tires when track condition changes.

~~ Drawdowns in trading systems are unavoidable, unless you have different systems for different chart landscapes. Yet, at the first place, you need to predict correctly what to anticipate in order to pick the right system.

Soybean Supply Surplus Expected In China

China soybean supply is seen to be at a surplus by early 2010 due to high imports lately. Price may be pressured.

High Outputs In 2010

Indonesia expects production of its plantation crops, including palm oil, rubber and cocoa, to be higher next year due to bigger areas under cultivation and as some crops enter peak production, a senior agriculture ministry official said on Monday.

Brazilian farmers have made an early start to gathering an expected bumper 2009/10 soybean crop whose development has been helped by above-average rains, but a strong local currency will limit their profits. Brokers say the first cargoes of soy began to arrive in the last week in silos around the north of the country's No. 1 soy producing state, Mato Grosso.

~~ Reuters

Faber Expects Dollar To Rise

(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may appreciate another 5 to 10 percent against the euro in the “near term” as bearish betting on the greenback becomes too crowded, according to Marc Faber, publisher of the “Gloom Boom & Doom” newsletter.

U.S. stocks and the dollar may keep rallying together, reversing a relationship that existed from March to November, Faber said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.

“Sentiment on the U.S. dollar was really extremely negative over the last three months,” Hong Kong-based Faber said. “The other currencies are not much better. The dollar will appreciate against the euro by another 5 to 10 percent, and later on we’ll have to see, but that would be a near-term target.”

Getting It Right

As you begin to take action toward the fulfillment of your goals and dreams, you must realize that not every action will be perfect. Not every action will produce the desired result. Not every action will work. Making mistakes, getting it almost right, and experimenting to see what happens are all part of the process of eventually getting it right.

~~ Jack Canfield

Wen's New Year Resolution

(Bloomberg) -- Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said the government will cool property prices, resist pressure for the yuan to appreciate and keep inflation at “reasonable” levels.

“Property prices have risen too quickly in some areas and we should use taxes and loan interest rates to stabilize” them, Wen said today in an online interview with the official Xinhua News Agency. China will “absolutely not yield” to pressure on the yuan, he said.

An Idea of Getting In and Out

Price bar expansion-contraction presents a simple visual method for the swing trader to evaluate volatility. Trends generally reflect expanding bars, while range-bound periods exhibit contracting ones. The highest profitability will come when entering a position at the end of a low-volatility period (contracting bar) and exiting on a volatility peak (expanding bar) just as the trend pulls back.

A School of Cichlids

A nice collection of a cichlids. What a sight!

Switching To South America Has Begun

Taiwan passed on a tender for US soybeans and bought Brazil soybeans.

Run, Run

"Don't look back (in anger): Cameron Poe can outrun an explosion but not creditors."  ...

~~ photofinish, blogger

Dig into more details.

Swing Trading Style

The best swing trades exit in wild times, just as advancing price approaches a strong barrier.

FCPO Price Evaluation Christmas Eve

Price has not been trading below 20-day MA since mid-October and now, it has already been 2 days underneath it. Short on strength, refer to lower time frame chart.

Daily Chart

China Is The Biggest Consumer, Not India

China had always been the biggest consumer since the marketing year of 2003/2004.

Fraud and Scam Industry Falling Behind

Girl Caller (Unknown Number):
(In Mandarin) Hello, we are from xxx and we would like to congratulate you on winning our grand prize contest. With this prize, you stand to enjoy .... and ....

Me:
(In English) Sorry, my Mandarin is not good. May you speak in English?

Girl Caller (Unknown Number):
(In English) Sorry, wrong number.

~~ That was pretty quick! I guess eligibility to the grand prize is restricted to mandarin-speakers only. Hmmmm.... 'Scammers' should brush up their girls' English to achieve a higher fraud yields. Also, they should start altering the scripts to be extra convincing.

Soyoil Price Evaluation 20091223

Soyoil had a 4th day consecutive losses as 1H 2010 soybean supply from South America pressures price ahead of the new year.Should put a price cap onto palm oil's gain if El Nino's strength is overstated.

Santana feat Wyclef Jean - Maria Maria

Lets get the blend of rock, salsa and jazz fusion with this evergreen guitarist.

Getting Back To The Basics: Risk

Why do great trade setups fail, while lousy ones move in our favor? The answer is quite simple, yet frustrating. Trading is an odds game, in which anything can happen at any time. Price will go where price wants to go, no matter how hard we hit the books, study the charts or pray to the deities. So rather than searching for the perfect trade, we're better off learning to control risk first.

You've forgotten the nature of risk if you can answer "yes" to any of the following questions. Do you still buy "how-to" books, even though you've traded for years? Do you sit in bad losses because you hate to be wrong? Do you reject market wisdom because you lost money trading it?

~~ tradingday.com

Bon Jovi and Leann Rimes - Till We Ain't Strangers Anymore

Bon Jovi doing country. Bands have evolved.

Bearish Bias For Soybean 2010

The short-term focus from the soybean market has been on the increasing supply outlook into 2010 and ideas that China demand will soon shift to South America soybeans.

Keep in mind, even if China total soybean demand was revised higher by 10% for the year and all other numbers from the recent world supply/demand were left unchanged, world ending stocks would still jump 21.7%.

~~cmegroup

FCPO Price Evaluation 20091223

Price managed to find support near 20-day MA. MACD histogram is not hinting on any bull strength and RSI dropped below 60. We are possibly looking at price hitting the lower band of the Bollinger Band if 20-day MA support slipped.

Jackie Chan Alone May Not Trigger The Obligation

Can you not oblige to a request for a free virus scan? Or at least, know a little on how Kaspersky provide free scanning through online. Right now, only per file basis scanning.

Wait...it's Kaspersky right? Before I embarrassed myself.

~~ Ceres Joey

Ceres Joey and Amanda Morene

Sounds like my new favorite song's title: Two is better than one. Of course, the meaning is a whole lot different.

Now, it's complete, Wayne.

~~ Recent Pioneer Roadshow

An Adage Regarding Trading

Attention to loss is a sign of trading experience. Attention to gain is a sign of trading immaturity.

El Nino: Chances is Still There

Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures remain typical of an El Nino and could warm further in the central and then eastern Pacific in coming weeks.

~~ Australian government's Bureau of Meteorology.

Technically, That Is Legal

Two lawyers arrive at the pub and ordered a couple of drinks. They then take sandwiches from their briefcases and began to eat.

Seeing this, the angry publican approaches them and says, 'Excuse me, but you cannot eat your own sandwiches in here!'

The two look at each other, shrug and exchange sandwiches.

Shipping Activity Declining

(Bloomberg) -- The queue of coal ships waiting at Australia’s Newcastle port, the world’s biggest export harbor for the fuel, stretched to its longest in more than two years as exports slowed for a second week.

Sixty ships, waiting to load 4.2 million tons of coal, were outside the harbor at 7 a.m. local time yesterday, up from 52 vessels a week earlier, Newcastle Port Corp. said on its Web site. The queue is the longest since July 2007.

The volume exported last week fell 1.1 percent to 1.91 million metric tons, after slipping 0.1 percent the week before. Coal ships queued for an average 13.2 days, up from 11.7 days the week before, the port said. The waiting time compared with 0.1 days for general-cargo vessels.

~~ There you go. Some signs of weakness. I bet it wasn't due to the holiday season.

US Economy May Contract Again

Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz warned there's a "significant" chance the U.S. economy will contract in the second half of next year, and urged the government to prepare a second stimulus package to spur job creation.

"The likelihood of this slowdown is very, very high," Stiglitz told reporters in Singapore. "There is a significant chance that the number will be in the negative range."

~~ Associated Press

Understanding Why We Trade Unnecessarily

Do we need to trade every time? Must we participate in all the non-major fluctuations, knowing that we could hardly guess right more than half the time? I consider the need to participate in all those tiny fluctuations as unnecessary. Of course, the degree of fluctuations vary according to the time frame being used.

To some, it could be daunting to stay aside for fear of missing the big trend. After all, anyone could argue that no one knows what's going to happen in the future, so better be in it on the safe side. But honestly, the birth of big trends is not difficult to spot.

So, why most people are often lured to trade when it's unnecessary? Maybe it's greed and ego, the common talked about weaknesses. Greed, the fact that he wants to make money in all the minor fluctuations. Ego, the idea that he could actually catch all the highs and lows in a directionless trading prices.

But what many don't realize is that, personal target played a role too on the urge to trade. The idea that one definitely don't make a single cent by staying put psychologically forces a trader to act (to trade), perhaps most of the time on unfounded basis.

Some set weekly goals, but more commonly monthly goals. So much in its truth, goals help us to stay focus and constantly work towards it. Unfortunately, in trading, the 'constantly work towards it' attitude creates the unnecessary urges to trade that often leads to mistakes and discouraging losses.

Therefore, I don't set goals, at least on the short term basis like weekly and monthly. First of all, it creates the unnecessary urge to trade. And secondly, our performance may be capped once we hit the goal, thus cutting any chances for us to achieve extraordinary performance. It's like we stop believing once we already hit the preset target. Worse still, we could be creating an even harder target to achieve for the following period.

Certain or Not?

The more we plan for certainties, the more life becomes uncertain. On the other hand, what is certain is that life will always be filled with uncertainties.

FCPO Price Evaluation of 20091221 - Half Time

Market participants beat some sense into crude palm oil prices today as it absorbs last week's commodity drop and lackluster performance in soyoil. As price has just begun to trade in equilibrium, not much movement is expected. On top of that, volume should be lower due to holiday season.

On the bigger picture, daily chart still exhibits some uptrend characteristic, although a long awaited consolidation in price is very much anticipated.

60 mins chart

Liverpool Walking Alone

They say some sensitive images are better left unposted to prevent tensions between different quarters. The image below is not excluded.

I am not a football fan.

Still Gloomy To Be Extra Bullish

No sign of any big recovery in palm oil exports. Still down, with an average of 7.5% on first 20 days.

Indonesia Increase Export Tax

Indonesia, the world's top crude palm oil (CPO) producer, may hike the export tax to 3 percent in January from zero now because of higher prices.

Amanda Morene

This face will put a smile on everybody. Her name is Amanda Morene. As Panasonic ambassador at PC Fair. This picture should probably give a great morning refresher for a lot of traders out there. What a sweet smile.

Another Supply Issue On Crude Oil

The main armed rebel group in oil-rich southern Nigeria early Saturday attacked a crude oil pipeline operated by Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) and Chevron Corp. (CVX), the militants said in a statement.

The Reality of Trading Cost

Every business runs with costs. If you're in the brick and mortar type, you'll have rental payments to worry about. If you're in the online type, you may spend on marketing expenses to promote your website. Same goes to trading of any financial instruments, except that its nature may be a little different.

Most people thought that trading's cost is as below:

Trading Cost = Broker fee + Stamp Duty + Clearance Fee

But in reality,

Trading Cost = Broker fee + Stamp Duty + Clearance Fee + Trade Losses

Without doubt, trade losses constitute the highest percentage of total cost, so try to keep it as low as possible.

So, the next time you stumble in a trade, remember that it's just part of your cost in doing a business. Also, you may reclassify Trade Losses into Tuition Expenses.  I am not sure if you could claim from HRDF (Human Resource Development Fund) for this.

Before I pen-off, let me share with the reader out there with one of my favorites.

R.E.M - Everybody Hurts

Interest Rates To Drive Commodities' Direction

Commodities were supported in 2009 by high levels of global liquidity; in 2010, the big factor will be whether the Federal Reserve and other central banks raise interest rates.